The world is on the brink of a looming agricultural crisis, and a new tool, the Climate-induced Agricultural Decline Index (CADI), is shedding light on the devastating impact of climate change on our food production. This innovative model, developed by the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE), predicts a grim future for global agriculture, with a focus on Spain's internal disparities. With a remarkable 9.3 by 9.3-kilometer precision, CADI reveals a stark reality: our planet's ability to feed itself is at risk.
The model's methodology is intriguing. It compares land productivity under different climatic conditions, keeping crop choices from 2020 constant. This approach isolates the pure climate effect, offering a unique perspective on the challenges ahead. Laura Mayoral and Hannes Mueller, affiliated with the Barcelona School of Economics, led this groundbreaking work, collaborating with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the UK Foreign Office.
The findings are alarming. In the last two decades, one in six croplands worldwide has experienced a 10% productivity decline compared to the previous two decades. The tropics bear the brunt of this damage, while some high-latitude areas show slight gains, albeit from low production levels. Europe's north-south divide is evident, with Scandinavia, Scotland, and the Alps improving, while southern Europe faces decline.
Spain, unfortunately, is not immune to this trend. The Cantabrian coast, Galicia, and the Pyrenees show productivity gains, while much of the interior and central-eastern peninsula suffer severe losses. This internal imbalance mirrors the global pattern, highlighting the country's vulnerability.
The consequences are far-reaching. As of now, 15% of the global population resides in areas with agricultural potential decline of at least 5%. With a projected 2.1°C warming between now and mid-century, this figure could skyrocket to nearly half the world's population by 2041-2060. The problem's concentration is alarming: 5% of tropical lands account for 35% of recorded losses, and just a quarter of countries are expected to bear 85-90% of the global damage by mid-century.
The study's nuance is crucial. Even in areas where productivity rises, tensions emerge. These gains necessitate resource shifts within countries, potentially causing friction between regions not previously competing for resources. Moreover, the injustice is profound: historically low greenhouse gas emitters are among the most exposed to these losses, and this gap is widening.
CADI's value extends beyond diagnosis. It empowers us to anticipate areas needing support for adaptation. This includes new crops, technology, production relocation, and targeted resource allocation. By acting now, we can mitigate the worst impacts, ensuring food security and rural incomes, and preventing population movements forced by a lack of alternatives.
The tool is accessible at https://cadi.econai.org/, offering projections from 2020 to 2100, showcasing regional agricultural output evolution and climate changes. This crisis demands urgent attention, and CADI provides a crucial roadmap for a sustainable future.
